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After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and growing pressure from the United States, the European Union is confronting a question once considered unlikely: whether it can defend itself in a major conflict. For decades, Europe depended on diplomacy, economic ties, and American-led security guarantees. Now, leaders fear those assumptions no longer hold.
EU governments have begun accelerating defence efforts. A €90 billion support package for Ukraine and new military initiatives aim to strengthen deterrence before 2030. NATO officials warn a direct threat to alliance territory could emerge within five years, while several European ministers say the risk of conflict is no longer theoretical.
Public opinion, however, lags behind political urgency. Surveys show most Europeans are unwilling to fight for EU borders, although concern about Russian pressure is highest in countries closer to Moscow. Eastern members such as Poland, the Baltic states, Finland, and Sweden are already preparing civilians through drills, defence education, and emergency planning.
At the EU level, defence spending exceeded €300 billion in 2024. The bloc’s “Readiness 2030” strategy seeks rapid troop movement across borders, upgraded infrastructure, and a “military Schengen” system to remove bureaucracy. The ReArm Europe program and new joint procurement loans aim to unify fragmented defence industries and speed weapons production.
Washington is simultaneously demanding greater European responsibility, expecting NATO allies to expand military spending sharply within the next decade. European officials worry reliance on U.S. protection may weaken, pushing them toward greater strategic autonomy.
Yet structural obstacles remain: slow procurement, regulatory delays, and incompatible equipment across national armies. While funding requests already total tens of billions for air defence and weapons systems, analysts warn rebuilding military capacity after decades of underinvestment will take time.
Europe’s debate has shifted. The issue is no longer whether it should prepare for conflict—but whether it can do so quickly enough.
